Wednesday’s severe weather possibility looks much better as instability ranges near 2000 j/KG. POPs are also greater than that of Tuesday, expect increased chances for precip through the day Wednesday. There is also a chance for severe storms Thursday, while precip is very likely, instability values drop significantly with a stationary front to the south. Model differences occur as we move into the medium and longer range. GFS is suggesting dry conditions through Friday, however, the ECMWF indicates precip across the southern Appalachian mountains. Nonetheless, I will favor the ECMWF for the time being. Medium Range models indicate a warm front over the forecast area Saturday morning.  Showers and T-Storms will continue through the weekend.

Website is scheduled for an update July 24th, 2011… Site enhancements and more content will be available at TarHeelWeather.com

CAPE 21Z Wednesday

The Storm Prediction Center has almost the entire WNC area in a slight risk for Wednesday, with the main threat being damaging winds and large hail. Models are in agreement of a moderately unstable atmosphere tomorrow afternoon. The main concern over the past few days have been a strong capping inversion in place. The latest numerical model runs have indicated that any cap should erode by the afternoon hours. Dewpoint and LI indices are very high for our area by 21Z…this along with daytime heating should be plenty to erode any cap that may be in place. Simulated Radar shows scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area mid to late afternoon. Likely scenario that may occur, is the development of scattered thunderstorms by afternoon, with tstorm activity quickly increasing as the afternoon progresses, before these storms move toward the southeast and into the Upstate late afternoon. The Severe Weather Alert has been activated on the homepage and continue to be activated through the day tomorrow.

On another note, The Atlantic Hurricane Season begins Wednesday, June 1st. Frankly, all models are picking up on a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean by Thursday…this is something to watch and I will have my thoughts on this system later this week. The tropical page will begin its regular updates Wednesday, June 1st.

As of Sunday (29th), I have completed the TarHeelWeather.com Forum and have added it to the navigation bar.  Check it out and join today, get involved in weather discussions! I am also brainstorming new content for TarHeelWeather.com .  I want your thoughts and ideas, leave a comment on this post. I am also debating whether or not to allow advertising on the we site for a low fee. If anyone is interested, shoot me and email (available on the about page). Thats about it for now, Check back for later updates.

Joplin, MO Radar Image

Next thing I want to talk about is the deadly tornado outbreaks that have occurred this week across the Plains as well as the TN Valley and Midwest.
Sunday, one of the deadliest tornadoes in history occurred in the city of Joplin, MO.  The latest death toll from that single tornado is at 125 deaths.  The Joplin tornado was rated an EF-5. Numerous tornadoes were reported this week, including a few violent, large tornadoes. Click here for more informationon the 2011 Tornado Season so far.

Good news is that our forecast doesn’t include tornadoes. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue through the day Friday. The forecast is isolated to scattered thunderstorms through Sunday. High temperatures through the weekend are looking to be in the low 80s. Ill have another more in depth update this weekend. Much more content will be added soon. Check by soon! Thanks

I want to start out by saying thanks so much for all the support with TarHeel Weather so far. I have been working extremely hard adding content to the website these past few days. Ill talk a little more about the website, but first I want to jump right into what we can expect today.
Temperatures will be well above normal today, with highs reaching the upper 80s for most of WNC. Humidity will play a big factor today as well, it is going to feel very hot and sticky. Surface dewpoints, according to the 12z NAM, should climb near 70 degrees. There is also a possibility for an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon. Moderate instability of 1500-2000j/Kg will be present across the area this afternoon. Plenty of daytime heating is expected to occur through this afternoon, suggesting any capping should be deteriorated. The 12z High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model, continues to forecast thunderstorm development across the mountains by 3pm this afternoon. There is a possibility of an isolated severe storm, stay tuned to local news stations, in addition to listening to NOAA Weather Radio.

Website Update

I have worked very hard the past few days on adding content to the website. I have recently added Current Weather Condition images on the homepage. As well as a few city conditions below the surface and temperature images. I tried to choose cities all across WNC, so the visitor could determine the city closest to their location. If you click on the current condition cities, it will take you to the NWS Forecast for that chosen location. I have also added content to the severe page here at TarHeel Weather. You can now view all Convective Outlooks issued by the Storm Prediction Center. I am currently in the process of placing the NOAA Weather Radio on the website, look forward to that addition. I have had numerous questions on whether or not I will be adding the East Pacific to the Tropical page. At this time, I have no plans on adding any information regarding the East Pacific tropical activity. WNC is only affected by Tropical Cyclones that develop in the Atlantic Ocean. That is about it for now, I plan on posting another update in a couple days once I get everything settled with the website. I also plan on purchasing a domain for the website in the future.