Severe Weather This Week
There have been slight differences in numerical models this afternoon regarding weather conditions for Tuesday. The NAM and ECMWF model bring very light QPF to the far western mountains late tomorrow afternoon. The GFS model keeps the precip well west of the forecast area. In addition, CAPE values across the mountains are not very impressive at all ( <750 j/KG). On the other hand, the Storm Prediction Center has the western counties in a slight risk of severe weather Tuesday. If the models carry out, severe weather will not be likely across WNC; the SPC will likely exclude any mountain counties for their Day 1 update. I will include very low POP values in the 7day Forecast.
Wednesday’s severe weather possibility looks much better as instability ranges near 2000 j/KG. POPs are also greater than that of Tuesday, expect increased chances for precip through the day Wednesday. There is also a chance for severe storms Thursday, while precip is very likely, instability values drop significantly with a stationary front to the south. Model differences occur as we move into the medium and longer range. GFS is suggesting dry conditions through Friday, however, the ECMWF indicates precip across the southern Appalachian mountains. Nonetheless, I will favor the ECMWF for the time being. Medium Range models indicate a warm front over the forecast area Saturday morning. Showers and T-Storms will continue through the weekend.
Website is scheduled for an update July 24th, 2011… Site enhancements and more content will be available at TarHeelWeather.com
Website May Go Down
Hello everyone,
I may be changing hosting services this evening and the website may be down for a few hours. Please be patient, the link www.TarHeelWeather.wordpress.com may still work =)
Severe Weather Likely Wednesday
Today’s Daily Climate Reportfor Asheville, NC concluded that we came one degree short of tying the record temperature for May 31. Today’s observed high temperature was 90 degrees, the record is 91 that was set in 1895. The record temperature for June 1, is 93 degrees and we could come very close to that number tomorrow.
CAPE 21Z Wednesday
The Storm Prediction Center has almost the entire WNC area in a slight risk for Wednesday, with the main threat being damaging winds and large hail. Models are in agreement of a moderately unstable atmosphere tomorrow afternoon. The main concern over the past few days have been a strong capping inversion in place. The latest numerical model runs have indicated that any cap should erode by the afternoon hours. Dewpoint and LI indices are very high for our area by 21Z…this along with daytime heating should be plenty to erode any cap that may be in place. Simulated Radar shows scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area mid to late afternoon. Likely scenario that may occur, is the development of scattered thunderstorms by afternoon, with tstorm activity quickly increasing as the afternoon progresses, before these storms move toward the southeast and into the Upstate late afternoon. The Severe Weather Alert has been activated on the homepage and continue to be activated through the day tomorrow.
On another note, The Atlantic Hurricane Season begins Wednesday, June 1st. Frankly, all models are picking up on a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean by Thursday…this is something to watch and I will have my thoughts on this system later this week. The tropical page will begin its regular updates Wednesday, June 1st.
Weather & Website Update
Today was the warmest day so far this year in most of WNC. The high temperatures reported from the Asheville Regional Airport was 90F. I would not be at all surprised if we were to beat that in the coming days, especially through WED. Precipitation is unlikely through at least WED, although there will be good instability across the area. Low dewpoint values as well as a capping inversion shouldn’t allow for any development of showers or thunderstorms. A shortwave trough is expected to move across the region WED afternoon which will enhance the probability of precipitation. The GFS Model is indicating lingering off and on showers across the region through the weekend. However, the other Medium-Long Range Models are not developing the same amount of moisture. Will continue to monitor our chances of precip through the weekend.
As of Sunday (29th), I have completed the TarHeelWeather.com Forum and have added it to the navigation bar. Check it out and join today, get involved in weather discussions! I am also brainstorming new content for TarHeelWeather.com . I want your thoughts and ideas, leave a comment on this post. I am also debating whether or not to allow advertising on the we site for a low fee. If anyone is interested, shoot me and email (available on the about page). Thats about it for now, Check back for later updates.
Domain!
Hello everyone, I apologize for not updating the past couple days. A lot of things have changed the past couple of days for TarHeel Weather. Yesterday (Wed 25th), I purchased a domain for the website www.TarHeelWeather.com . As you can see the look of the website has also recently changed. I’ve been doing some experimenting in Photoshop as well as with the template. What is your thoughts on the new look? Leave a comment below.
Joplin, MO Radar Image
Next thing I want to talk about is the deadly tornado outbreaks that have occurred this week across the Plains as well as the TN Valley and Midwest.
Sunday, one of the deadliest tornadoes in history occurred in the city of Joplin, MO. The latest death toll from that single tornado is at 125 deaths. The Joplin tornado was rated an EF-5. Numerous tornadoes were reported this week, including a few violent, large tornadoes. Click here for more informationon the 2011 Tornado Season so far.
Good news is that our forecast doesn’t include tornadoes. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue through the day Friday. The forecast is isolated to scattered thunderstorms through Sunday. High temperatures through the weekend are looking to be in the low 80s. Ill have another more in depth update this weekend. Much more content will be added soon. Check by soon! Thanks
